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July 2025 Central Texas floods

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July 2025 Central Texas floods
Clockwise from top: Aerial photo of the heavy flooding near Hunt, Texas, on July 4, 2025. Satellite imagery of the storm responsible for the historic floods. A footbridge damaged by the heavy flooding. Search and rescue operations along the Guadalupe River. Photo of a washed out road and several trees snapped and littered across the ground.
CauseHeavy rains due to a mesoscale convective vortex enhanced with tropical moisture from the remnants of Tropical Storm Barry, and tropical east Pacific remnant moisture
Meteorological history
DurationJuly 4–7, 2025 (3 days)
July 12–13, 2025 (1 day)
(4 days total)
Flood
Maximum rainfall20.33 inches (516.4 mm)
Overall effects
Fatalities134+[1][2][3]
Missing101+
Areas affectedTexas Hill Country, Central Texas (especially Kerr County), Guadalupe River Watershed

In July 2025, destructive and deadly flooding took place in the Texas Hill Country, particularly in Kerr County, in the U.S. state of Texas. During the flooding, water levels along the Guadalupe River rose rapidly. As a result, at least 134 fatalities have been confirmed, of which at least 107 are in Kerr County, with about 101 reported missing. The flooding was caused by a mesoscale convective vortex with enhanced tropical moisture from the remnants of Tropical Storm Barry, a short-lived tropical cyclone, and tropical moisture from the eastern Pacific.

Flooding began on the morning of July 4, after significant rainfall accumulated across Central Texas. Six flash flood emergency warnings, which included the cities of Kerrville and Mason, were issued the same day. The Guadalupe River rose about 26 ft (7.9 m) in 45 minutes.[4] It surged an estimated 29 ft (8.8 m) in the Hunt area, where more than 20 children were declared missing from a summer camp. July 5 saw more flash flood warnings for the Lake Travis area, which is part of the Colorado River watershed. In the span of a few hours, the equivalent to four months worth of rain fell across the Texas Hill Country region, with the highest rain totals being 20.33 in (516 mm). This flood was the deadliest inland flooding event in the United States since the 1976 Big Thompson River flood, surpassing flooding from Hurricane Helene in 2024.[5][6]

A few days after the initial floods, on July 12 the Weather Prediction Center declared a moderate risk for the same area in central Texas, with the potential for significant to major flash flooding. Throughout the overnight hours of July 12 into the next day, several flash flood warnings were issued for the Texas Hill Country, including a flash flood emergency issued for San Saba County. The renewed potential for more significant flooding along the Guadalupe River caused Kerr County officials to temporarily suspend all search operations along the river for the day. Several swift water rescues were conducted along the Lampasas River near Kempner and other counties as the river rose over 30 ft (9.1 m), leading to evacuation of an RV park and destruction of a boy scout ferry system.[7]

After the disaster, Texas governor Greg Abbott signed a disaster declaration for several counties in Central Texas, and U.S. president Donald Trump signed a federal disaster declaration for Kerr County. Over 2,000 volunteers arrived in Kerr County to help with the search and rescue. Several state and volunteer firefighters and search and rescue teams, including a team from Mexico, scoured the Guadalupe River. Over 850 people were rescued from the floods; one U.S. Coast Guard rescue swimmer saved 165 mostly girls by giving up his space on the rescue helicopter. The preparation for and response to the floods by Kerr County officials have fallen under scrutiny. The county lacked an independent flood warning system, though a former sheriff advocated for such a system nine years earlier and the county commissioner at the time noted that their area was at the highest risk for flooding. The lack of follow-up was attributed to its high cost, and lack of support from the local residents. Although officials were notified when the flooding began on July 4, it took several additional hours before county alert messages were sent. A report revealed that several buildings in Camp Mystic were removed from Federal Emergency Management Agency's 100 year flood map between 2011 and 2020 after appeals from federal regulators, loosening oversight as the camp thrived and expanded in the dangerous flood plain years before the deadly floods.

Background and meteorological synopsis

See also: Tropical Storm Barry (2025)
Area of "Flash Flood Alley" in Texas; the lighter curved region running from Dallas down through San Antonio

Central Texas, and more specifically the Hill Country region, is known for being prone to major floods. With one of the highest risks for flash flooding in the country, the area is referred to as the flash flood alley, according to the Lower Colorado River Authority.[8] This is caused by a combination of steep hills and arid soil that water tends to run off quickly, funneling water rapidly into rivers during rainstorms.[9] The Guadalupe River and surrounding rivers in the region have flooded multiple times in recent decades, often with deadly consequences. This includes flooding in July 1987 that killed 10, flooding in October 1998 that killed 31,[10] flooding in May 2015 on the nearby Blanco River that killed 13, and flooding just 3 weeks earlier in nearby San Antonio that killed 13.[11][12] Between 2015-2024, there's an average of 113 flood-related fatalities per year, making them the second deadliest weather phenomenon in the United States, only behind heat.[13]

After the floods, news came out that Camp Mystic was located in what was described as an "extremely hazardous" floodway.[14] PBS News reported that a review from the Associated Press found that federal regulators appealed repeatedly to remove Camp Mystic's buildings from Federal Emergency Management Agency's 100 year flood map, which loosened the overseeing of the camp as the site continued to operate and expanding closer to the dangerous flood plain. In 2011, FEMA placed the summer camp in a special flood hazard area, meaning the camp was required to have flood insurance and stricter regulation on any future construction projects. The designation also meant the area was likely to be inundated by a 100-year-flood.[15] In 2013, after receiving further appeals, FEMA slightly adjusted the county's flood map and removed 15 camp buildings from the hazard area. In 2019 and 2020, 15 more buildings located at Camp Mystic Cypress Lake, a subsidiary site to the original along the Guadalupe River that was opened in 2020 as an effort to expand the overall camp, were removed as well.[15]

One of the owners of Camp Mystic, Dick Eastland, initially made proposal for an automatic alert system for when water levels reached a certain point, and while it was installed in the late 1980s, a decade later, authorities shut down the system, citing unreliability with some of the stations not reporting information.[16] Two days before the floods, an inspector reported the camp had a written plan to respond to natural disasters, with volunteers and camp employees being notified of these plans during training sessions.[17]

Late on July 3, 2025, the remnant mid-level circulation of Atlantic Tropical Storm Barry became embedded within a broader mid-level trough containing tropical east Pacific remnant moisture.[18][19] This system developed into thunderstorms which stalled over Central Texas, causing heavy rains that led to deadly flooding in that region on July 4–7, especially along the Guadalupe River.[20][21] In total, more than 1.8 trillion gallons of rain, four months worth of rain, fell in or around the Texas Hill Country.[22][23]

Preparations and impact

At 1:18 pm CDT on July 3, 2025, the National Weather Service office in San Antonio, Texas, issued a flood watch for Kerr County and other areas that would later be impacted by severe flooding. The watch warned of 1–3 inches (25–76 mm) of rain, with isolated areas seeing closer to 5–7 inches (130–180 mm). The watch noted that there would be "rounds of scattered to widespread showers and storms with heavy rain rates possible."[24]

"Moderate" risk of excessive rainfall outlined by the Weather Prediction Center at 1430Z on July 4

On July 3 at 6:10 pm CDT, the Weather Prediction Center branch of the National Weather Service issued a Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion citing that "areas of flash flooding will be likely across central TX overnight with very heavy rainfall expected.[25] Hourly rainfall in excess of 2 to 3 inches (51–76 mm) seems reasonable given the environment and localized 6-hr totals over 6 inches (150 mm) will be possible", and detailing that the potential flooding may have "significant impacts".[26] Another discussion issued at 6:27 am on July 4 used stronger wording, warning that "Considerable to catastrophic flash flood impacts can continue to be expected."[27]

Numerous flash flood warnings were issued throughout the event. Several of these warnings contained dire flash flood emergency wording. The first flash flood warning for the event was issued at 11:41 pm CDT on July 3 and was for Bandera County. At 1:14 am CDT on July 4, the first flash flood warning with a "considerable" tags was issued for Bandera and Kerr counties;[25] for Hunt and Ingram in Kerr County, at 4:03 am on July 4, a flash flood emergency was issued urging residents to "SEEK HIGHER GROUND NOW!" and that rainfall rates of 2–4 inches (50–100 mm) per hour would continue to impact the area which had already seen 4–10 inches (100–250 mm) of rain.[28] By 4:05, the Guadalupe River at Hunt had risen to 21.99 feet (6.70 m), rising over ten feet (3.0 m) in an hour and reaching major flood stage. The river continued to surge, reaching 37.52 feet (11.44 m) and still rising at 5:10 am when the gauge at Hunt stopped updating. This level marked the highest ever recorded at Hunt, surpassing flash flooding that occurred in 1987 by almost a foot.[29] Multiple summer camps near Hunt, notably Camp Mystic, experienced catastrophic flooding, and as a result, multiple casualties.[30]

GOES-19 Infrared imagery of the storm system on July 4

Further down the Guadalupe River, a flash flood emergency was issued by the National Weather Service for Kerrville at 5:34 am, again warning of the potential for "catastrophic" flood damage. Between 5:15 and 6:45, the river surged from less than two feet (60 cm) to 34.29 feet (10.45 m) and major flood stage.[31][32] Another flash flood emergency was issued for Comfort, where the water level at the Guadalupe River surged from 3.15 feet (100 cm) at 8:45 am to 35.26 feet (10.75 m) just two hours later at 10:45 as a wall of water surged down the river. The area was placed under a flash flood emergency at 7:24 am, warning that "automated rain gauges indicate a large and deadly flood wave is moving down the Guadalupe River" over an hour before the water level began to surge.[33][34] In total, the National Weather Service issued 22 alerts of escalating severity over the course of July 3 and 4.[35] On July 7, another "moderate" risk for excessive rainfall was outlined by the Weather Prediction Center;[36] A flash flood watch was issued for much of central Texas at 11:46 pm CDT on July 6, warning of 2-4 inches of rain with some areas possibly seeing as much as 10 inches through 7 pm on July 7.[37]

After a lull in flood activity, a new flash flood emergency was issued on July 13, for the Colorado Bend State Park, noting that "Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area".[38] Numerous Flash Flood Warnings were also issued. Torrential rain caused the Lampasas River to quickly rise over 30 ft (9 m) in 5 hours. A crest of 32.45 ft (9.89 m) (just under major flood stage) was recorded that morning near Kempner.[39]

Effects

In the early morning of July 4, 6.5 inches (170 mm) of rain fell in just three hours, resulting in numerous water-related rescues.[40] In Hunt, Texas, where the two branches of the Guadalupe River meet, the river gauge recorded a 26-foot (7.9 m) rise just 45 minutes before failing when it reached 29 feet (8.8 m); it ultimately crested at 37.52 feet (11.44 m).[41][29][42] Downstream in Kerrville, the river surged to 21 feet (6.4 m).[43] Further downstream, in Comfort, it surged to 29.86 feet (9.10 m).[43] The city of Kerrville issued a disaster declaration on July 4 following the floods.[44] In total, 5–11 inches (130–280 mm) of rain fell on some areas that experienced significant flood effects.[45]

Flooding continued into July 5[46] with two more flash flood emergencies being issued for areas around Lake Travis north of Austin.[47][48][49] Later, a third flash flood emergency was issued for central Comal County, noting that "local law enforcement reported flooding of the Guadalupe River".[50] 20.33 inches (516 mm) of rain fell northwest of Streeter.[51]

Search and rescue

Footage of a United States Coast Guard rescue mission during July 4

Over 200 people were rescued from the floods over the course of July 4.[52][53] Search-and-rescue operations took place on July 4 and overnight from July 4 to 5, resulting in at least 237 people being rescued from floodwaters [54] including 167 people rescued from trees and roofs via helicopter.[55] US Coast Guard rescue swimmer Scott Ruskan, who arrived onsite after 1 pm, was hailed as a hero after Department of Homeland Security officials, including Secretary Kristi Noem, credited him with coordinaing the evacuation of 165 people.[56] Telecommunication outages in the area made it hard to contact many people in the region.[57] The Texas Parks and Wildlife Department said on July 8 that more than 440 people had been rescued, while authorities had searched 26 miles (42 km) of river.[30] Over 2,000 volunteers helped out in the emergency operations in Kerr County alone.[58] According to officials, the last "live rescue" was made on July 4.[30][59]

Multiple groups from at least twelve other U.S. states and agencies, as well as from Mexico, joined the search and rescue. Firefighters and first responders from Mexico, specifically from Fundación 911 stationed at Acuña, Mexico, volunteered to assist in the operations along the Guadalupe River.[60] Under the command of the Mountain Home fire department and Texas state fire department, the team of 13 brought search and rescue canines from Nuevo León. The Mexican team was brought in despite rising tensions along the Mexico–United States border and the U.S. federal and state administration's crackdown on immigration.[61] On July 7, California Governor Gavin Newsom announced the deployment of skilled Urban Search and Rescue Team members to the Texas floods in close coordination with FEMA; the teams were experienced in major disaster rescue operations, including Hurricane Katrina and the September 11 attacks.[62] The next day, he announced that an additional 18 highly skilled rescue team members would assist in the response.[63]

Twenty-two Arkansas National Guardsmen, including pilots, crew chiefs, and maintenance personnel, were deployed to assist with transportation of search and rescue personnel during the early morning hours of July 8, after receiving an Emergency Management Assistance Compact request from Texas.[64] On the same day, Colorado Task Force One was activated in response to the Texas floods; the team consisted of 48 members, including four canines, spanning 16 different agencies and five affiliate member agencies. South Metro Fire Rescue sent ten members, Poudre Fire Authority sent six members, and Colorado Springs Fire Department five members.[65] On July 7, the governor of Louisiana, Jeff Landry, dispatched 14 Swift Water Rescue personnel to Texas to assist in the flood response.[66] On July 9, NASA deployed two aircraft to assist state and local authorities in the recovery operation. The planes are a part of NASA's Disasters Response Coordination System, which was activated to support emergency responses and was working closely with Texas Division of Emergency Management, FEMA, and two charities: Save the Children and GiveDirectly.[67]

North Dakota's governor Kelly Armstrong authorized the North Dakota National Guard to send a MQ-9 Reaper drone to help locate survivors under the request from Emergency Management Assistance Compact. Remote controlled from Fargo, North Dakota by the North Dakota Air National Guard's 119th Wing, the MQ-9 Reaper is being used to collect aerial surveillance, search for the missing, and assess damage in inaccessible areas.[68] On July 11, Ohio Task Force One was requested to assist with search and rescue operations in Texas after receiving an activation order from the FEMA Urban Search and Rescue System for a Canine Mission Ready Package. Three team members, alongside two K-9s, were sent to assist in the operation and search for missing people.[69] Ohio's governor Mike DeWine also activated the Ohio State Highway Patrol Mobile Field Force after calling Abbott to offer his support to the victims. A team from the Ohio Department of Natural Resources was also sent to Texas to help with recovery efforts.[70][71] Dozens of active and former Navy SEALS volunteered to assist with the search and recovery efforts, with more than 30 joining in the operations.[72]

Minnesota's governor Tim Walz sent out the state's most "elite" K9 units from Minnesota Task Force one to aid in the search and recovery operations in central Texas, with the governor office claiming the K9 units were equipped for 24-hour operations and can work with any area.[73] Arizona Task Force One deployed a team of 49 to Texas, the team including live-find dogs, medical personnel, structural engineers and technical rescue specialists. The team also brought vehicles and boats, including boats that can gain access to inaccessible areas. Structural collapse gear, hazardous materials equipment and communications tools were also deployed.[74] Eight members from the Swiftwater Rescue Team, apart of the Virginia Beach Fire Department, were sent to central Texas to assist in the search and rescue efforts, with the first responders being send out to July 6.[75] Nevada Task Force One was sent to assist in the recovery efforts, with a team of 47, including responders from several fire department in Nevada, along with four K9 units.[76] On July 14, Tennessee Task Force One were deployed to Kerr County, with the team comprising of four personnel, including three dog-handlers and three search dogs. These additional resources assisted the already deployed TN-TF1 Canine Search Team-Human Remains Detection team. Over the weekends, the Tennessee Task Force Two's Urban Rescue & Rescue team were deployed by the Tennessee Emergency Management Agency to support local agencies over the weekend with various technical search and rescue assistance, with the crew being composed of several members from multiple fire departments across Tennessee.[77]

On July 8, FEMA activates Indiana Task Force One and deployed a team of 49 to central Texas to aid and assist with the local authorities after the floods. Few days later on July 13, Indiana Task Force One received more orders to deploy 35 extra members. The next day, the additional 35 emergency responders arrived in Kerr County to assist in the search and recovery efforts.[78]

On July 13, several search and rescue operations were conducted in multiple counties, including Lampasas, San Saba and Schleicher, as the Lampasas River rose over 30 ft (9.1 m), with Texas Task Force One and Texas Parks & Wildlife making water rescues along the river.[79] Officials urged untrained civilians to stay away from active search zones because of safety risks and coordination challenges.[80] They also criticized the influx of sightseers and the use of unauthorized drones for complicating rescue operations.[81][82] On July 7, a private drone was illegally flown into temporarily restricted airspace over Kerrville and crashed into a rescue helicopter, forcing the pilot to make an emergency landing, and damaging and rendering unusable a critical piece of emergency response equipment.[83] On July 13, search operations were suspended due to renewed threats of major flash flooding.[39][84]

Timeline

July 3

  • Early alerts issued: The National Weather Service forecasts heavy rain across Central Texas.[85][86]

July 4

  • Torrential rainfall packs 2–3 in/hour, triggering catastrophic flash flooding in the Texas Hill Country, particularly along the Guadalupe River in Kerr County.[87]
  • The Guadalupe River rises rapidly, over 26 ft in 45 minutes, cresting at 37.52 ft by around 5 am, a record high.
  • Numerous Flash Flood Emergencies are declared for Kerr, Bandera, and Comal counties. Rainfall totals exceed 20 inches in parts of the watershed.
  • Summer camps are devastated — Camp Mystic, hosting 750 girls, gets hit. At least 27 campers and counselors reported as deceased, including director Dick Eastland.
  • Initial fatalities reported at 24,[88] with 23–25 missing.[89]

July 5

  • Continued flash flooding in areas such as Lake Travis and Comal County (Colorado River watershed).
  • Death toll rises to 50;[90] more than 29 people are reported to be missing.[91][92]

July 6

  • Criticism arises over slow or ineffective flood-alert systems in Kerr County.
  • Death toll rises to 81;[93] 41 are reported to be missing.[93]

July 7

  • Drones and national guard units from multiple states.[94]
  • Kerr County’s lack of sirens and independent alerts are scrutinized.[95]
  • Death toll rises to 104;[96] officially, 24 people are listed as missing[96]

July 8

  • Over 440 people rescued. Aid arrives from Louisiana, Colorado, Ohio, Minnesota, Mexico, and NASA.[97][98]
  • Death toll increases to 111;[99] the number people missing increases to over 172[99]

July 9

  • Additional multi-state rescue and drone teams deployed.[100]
  • Death toll stands at 120;[101] more than 160 are still missing.[102]

July 10

  • FEMA, SBA, Texas Division of Emergency Management open a Disaster Recovery Center in Kerrville.
  • Death toll reaches 129, with more than 170 still reported as missing.[103]

July 11

  • U.S. Coast Guard and Ohio Task Force One continue search efforts.
  • President Donald Trump toured disaster sites nears the Guadalupe River in Kerrville, and also met with state and local officials.[104]
  • Death toll at 129,[105] with over 160 reported missing.[106]

July 12

  • Investigations launched into delayed warning systems.[citation needed]
  • Relief efforts ramp up. Major contributions are made by H‑E‑B, Walmart, Airbnb, World Central Kitchen, Samaritan's Purse, and Operation Airdrop.[107]

July 13

  • Heavy rains in the region caused new flooding, forcing officials to suspend search and recovery efforts; several rescues and evacuations were carried out.[108]
  • Death toll rises to 132,[2] with over 160 people still missing.[109]

Casualties

County Deaths[1][2]
Kerr County 107+
Travis County 9
Kendall County 9
Burnet County 5
Williamson County 3
Tom Green County 1
Total 134+

As of July 10, there were 134 people confirmed dead in the floods.[1][2] At least 107 deaths were confirmed in Kerr County (70 adults and 37 children), nine in Travis County, nine in Kendall County, five in Burnet County, three in Williamson County, and one in Tom Green County.[1][2]

Several of the fatalities in Kerr County were young girls who were staying at Camp Mystic, an all-girls Christian summer camp located 6 miles (10 km) southwest of Hunt. On July 4, 27 were declared missing from Camp Mystic.[110] The number of girls missing dropped to 10 on July 7 with the same camp counselor still missing.[111] Camp Mystic director Dick Eastland, who purchased the camp in 1974, was confirmed to be among those dead as well.[112][113] On July 7, CNN reported that 27 campers and counselors had died in floods at Camp Mystic and that ten girls and a counselor were still missing.[114] By July 9, five girls and one counselor remained missing.[115]

On July 14, the number of people missing was lowered from 161 to 101. In Travis County specifically, the number missing dropped from ten to four after it was discovered some people appeared both on the list of people missing and people confirmed dead.[116][117] As of July 15, at least 101 people were missing, 97 in Kerr County, 3 in Travis County, 1 in Burnet County.[1]

Aftermath

Scouts help unload donated supplies for Red Cross distribution in Boerne, Texas

The grocery chain H-E-B deployed its mobile kitchens and disaster relief trucks, committing a $5 million donation to aid and recovery.[118][119] All Hands and Hearts partnered with Airbnb to support first responders, search and rescue teams, and families who survived the floods, with Airbnb providing emergency temporary housing for first responders, people looking for missing loved ones wanting to stay near search and rescue efforts, and residents with heavily damaged or destroyed homes, working with local nonprofits to identify those in greatest need.[120][121] In response to the floods, the World Central Kitchen Relief team was mobilized in central Texas to support the communities impacted by the floods by providing food and waters to anyone in need, including first responders.[122]

Samaritan's Purse sent a disaster relief unit to central Texas, with the unit equipped with tools and relief supplies from Southwest Ministry Center in Coppell, Texas. Volunteers from the organization were also prepared to assist families in recovery efforts.[123] Texas non-profit Operation Airdrop has mobilized aircraft, crews, and volunteer pilots to deliver emergency supplies to people stranded in hard-to-reach areas.[124] First responders and firefighters from Acuna, Mexico, located across the border from Del Rio, Texas, were deployed by nonprofit Foundation 911 on July 9 to aid in search and rescue efforts in Kerrville, Kerr County.[125][126] T-Mobile donated $500,000 to support relief efforts in Kerr County to the Community Foundation of the Texas Hill Country.[127] Walmart, its foundation, and Sam's Club partnered up to support communities in South and Central Texas after the floods. These three companies and organization committed up to $500,000 in grants and donations, including up to $250,000 match of customer and member donations through online or in-stores or clubs in Texas. At the Walmart Supercenter in Kerrville, Operation BBQ relief offered free meals, with Tide's Loads of Hope laundry trucks and showers provided by Matthew 25: Ministries, Procter & Gamble and Walmart will be deployed to the area. Walmart and their charity foundation will also fund local partners like the American Red Cross and The Salvation Army with food, water, and other supplies for the relief efforts.[128]

Amazon donated over 68,000 essential supplies to communities in central Texas. The supplies include gift cards, diapers, snacks, hygiene kits, and cleaning supplies. Amazon also have served as technology advisor and shared equipment to help search and rescue teams map their positions, assess hazards, and coordinate resources. The organizations that are distributing Amazon supplies include All Hand and Hearts, American Red Cross, Community Foundation of the Texas Hill Country, Central Texas Food Bank, Good360, Information Technology Disaster Resource Center, Operation BBQ Relief, The Johnson Center, and United Rescue Alliance.[129]

On Water Street in Kerrville, a large makeshift memorial was erected on a chain-link fence that separates the Guadalupe River from downtown Kerrville, with the memorial filled with photographs of the victims who were killed, flowers, and signs. On the evening of July 11, 300 people showed up at the memorial for a vigil with speakers from faith leader and survivors recounting their stories.[130] Basketball teams Houston Rockets, Dallas Mavericks, and San Antonio Spurs partnered up to provide support for flood relief efforts, with the teams making t-shirts with the slogan "Texas Strong" for healing funds to support victims impacted by the floods.[131] Signarama, a small business based in Boerne, Texas, made several "Hill Country strong", with the business and family donating every sign and sending proceeds to The Community Foundation in Kerrville. In total, The Community Foundation raised $30 million in flood relief.[132]

Political response

External videos
video icon "Governor Abbott and Other Officials Hold News Conference on Texas Floods", July 6, 2025, C-SPAN
video icon "Gov. Abbott and Others News Conference on Texas Floods", July 8, 2025, C-SPAN

Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick said that he is working in coordination with the state's emergency response team on the "significant" and "catastrophic" flooding in Kerr County.[133][134] On July 4, Governor Greg Abbott also signed a state disaster declaration for several counties in Central Texas. On July 5, Abbott expanded the disaster declaration to additional counties affected by storms and toured the damage from the flooding in Kerrville, with local, state, and federal officials including Secretary of Homeland Security Kristi Noem.[135][136] The next day, Abbott announced Trump signed a federal disaster declaration for Kerr County, with other counties planned to be added later.[137] Patrick also formed the Select Committees on Disaster Preparedness and Flooding, a joint committee with members from both the Texas House and Senate to discuss flood response.[138]

Trump commented that the floods were "terrible" and promised federal aid to those affected.[139] In response to Abbott's July 4 disaster declaration and request for federal support, Trump issued a federal disaster declaration on July 6.[140][141][142] States petition the federal government for emergency assistance when "the necessary response to a disaster is beyond the capacity of state and local governments";[143] it is estimated that federal funding already covered approximately 75% of the state of Texas emergency management operations budget.[144] The Texas Division of Emergency Management, FEMA and U.S. Small Business Administration staff opened a Disaster Recovery Center in Kerrville on July 10 to offer help to survivors affected by extreme weather.[145] As of July 10, acting FEMA director David Richardson had not made any public statements regarding the deadly flooding, nor had he surveyed the flood area or made other public appearances in connection with the disaster, which FEMA staff say is highly unusual.[146] According to CNN, he visited Kerrville on July 12 but refused to answer their questions about FEMA's call center efficiency; a spokesperson did.[147]: min.02:03 

Analysis, criticism, and misinformation

The 2021 IPCC report on The Physical Science Basis stated that human-induced climate change was increasing the frequency and intensity of extreme heavy rainfall events and flash floods, with the rarer extreme events becoming more frequent.[148][149][150] Natural variability also plays a part, and during the spring of 2024, the phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation was linked to enhanced severe weather outbreaks in the region.[151]Reporting on the 2025 flood, CNN weather linked to their October 2024 report that an unprecedented 91 flash flood emergencies had been issued by the NWS in that year, and showed graphs of increasing rainfall intensity since 1970, at San Antonio and Austin, from a March 2025 Climate Central report.[152][dubious – discuss]

On July 7, Faranda (Research Director in Climate Physics, LSCE), Ginesta (Oxford Smith School), and Alberti (INGV), published a report, on Zenodo. They described the flood on July 4, its meteorological conditions, and its background with reference to the 2021 IPCC report. Comparing present regional conditions (1987–2023) to the past (1950–1986), their analysis concluded that meteorological conditions leading to the July 2025 floods in Texas were up to 7% wetter compared to similar past events; "Natural variability alone cannot explain the changes in precipitation associated with this very exceptional meteorological condition."[151]

Accuracy and communication of forecasts

In the immediate aftermath of the flooding, Texas Division of Emergency Management Chief Nim Kidd criticized the forecasts from the National Weather Service stating "the amount of rain that fell in this specific location was never in any of those forecasts...It did not predict the amount of rain that we saw."[11][153][154] Former officials from NOAA and the NWS stated that "the forecasts were as good as could be expected, given the enormous levels of rainfall and the storm's unusually abrupt escalation" but staffing shortages from recent reductions in the federal workforce "suggested a separate problem (...) the loss of experienced people who would typically have helped communicate with local authorities in the hours after flash flood warnings were issued overnight".

The New York Times reported that the NWS office in San Angelo had several vacancies, including the branch's meteorologist-in-charge, and that the San Antonio office did not have a warning coordination meteorologist after the individual previously in that role took an early retirement as part of the federal workforce reductions. According to Tom Fahy, the legislative director for the National Weather Service Employees Organization, the vacancy rates at both offices had "roughly doubled" since Trump's inauguration in January.[155][156][157] However, there was still a normal amount of people working that night, with 5 forecasters on duty when standard protocol is for there to be 2 at night. A Commerce Department spokesman rejected the assertion that the response of the NWS had been inadequate, as did the NWS Union.[158][159] The current Kerr County judge, Rob Kelly, stated during the floods that "no one knew this kind of flood was coming".[160][161]

Effectiveness of evacuation alerts

Focus has also fallen on the lack of an independent warning system and the lack of evacuation orders in Kerr County.[162] It relied on cellphone emergency alerts, which may not work in rural areas with poor service, at night, when phones are off, or when there are no phones around: the Camp Mystic girls were not allowed to bring them. Also, people tend to ignore repeated phone alerts.[163] Areas that did have a warning system in place, such as Comfort in Kendall County, had no casualties. Comfort has a computer-backed system costing about $60,000 that is linked to the National Weather Service by a satellite dish that can withstand violent weather, and automatically triggers sirens when the agency declares flash flood emergencies for the area. Comfort opts to trigger its sirens manually, when officials notice flood waters have risen past a certain point.[163][164]

Kerr County officials have been under scrutiny for their slow warning time. In 2016, the then-sheriff of Kerr County advocated for a warning system, including sirens,[165] but other people did not want the disturbance of sirens going off accidentally, and then-Commissioner H.A. "Buster" Baldwin said, "I think this whole thing is a little extravagant for Kerr County, with sirens and such."[163] A county commissioner noted that year that Kerr County was "probably the highest risk area in the state for flooding".[166] Discussions about funding and constructing a system continued on and off until at least 2021.[166] Judge Kelly said that the lack of a warning system was due to its high cost and claimed that residents were resistant to the idea for that reason.[155][167]

Kerr County twice requested government grants in 2017 and 2018 from the Texas Division of Emergency Management for additional measuring equipment, upgrades to existing water gauge systems, and software / website for real-time information for the public. These requests were not approved, by the Texas Division of Emergency Management which oversees FEMA funding disbursements.[168][169] Additional funding was made available for the county in 2021 through the American Rescue Plan Act, however the county did not utilize the funds to update or add to their flood warning system.[170] A dispatch audio reveals that around 4:22 am CDT, around the time the flood started, a firefighter from Ingram asked the Kerr County Sheriff's Office to alert residents about the floods, but it took nearly six hours for Kerr County officials to heed the call, with the dispatcher waiting for approval by their supervisors. The first alert from Kerr County's CodeRED[171] system did not go out until 90 minutes later, with some messages not arriving until 10 am CDT.[172][173] Kerr County Sheriff Larry Leitha declined to answer a question about the delayed emergency alerts, saying that an after-action review would follow the search and rescue efforts.[174] Later, it was reported that Dick Eastland, Camp Mystic leader, received the flash flood warning early on 1:14 am, but took until 2:30 am, over an hour later, to begin evacuations. By then, the river already rising rapidly.[175]

After the devastating floods, Governor of Indiana Mike Braun said how his state must reassess how it communicate emergency warnings and coordinates disaster response, and how the Texas floods should be a wake-up call for Indiana and other states to examine whether their emergency response systems have any weaknesses, with the Governor quoting, "We have our own calamities, through tornadoes and flooding — thank goodness, nothing of that magnitude — but we all need to be prepared. I think it's a time to learn from it and see what we can do better, collectively."[176]

FEMA response times

Percentages of FEMA distress answers during the floods[177]

During the floods, many emergency calls to FEMA were not answered due to a lack of personnel, as Secretary Noem had not renewed the contracts with the four call centers fielding most of the calls. The call centers also help survivors access various kinds of assistance, including an emergency $750 payment for immediate needs, such as food. As of July 8, Secretary Noem had still not made a decision on the call center contracts or granted a waiver. Democrats on the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform wrote that it took her until July 7 to approve the deployment of FEMA's search-and-rescue teams.[178][177]

CNN reported that U.S. Secretary Kristi Noem implemented a policy by which every contract and grant over $100,000 now requires her personal sign-off before any funds can be released. "For FEMA, where disaster response costs routinely soar into the billions as the agency contracts with on-the-ground crews, officials say that threshold is essentially "pennies," requiring sign-off for relatively small expenditures." The policy also meant that, in the face of the incoming flood, FEMA officials couldn’t pre-position Urban Search and Rescue crews from the teams stationed regionally across the country, as they needed Noem’s approval before sending those additional assets. "Noem didn’t authorize FEMA’s deployment of Urban Search and Rescue teams until Monday, more than 72 hours after the flooding began, multiple sources told CNN."[179] Noem dismissed CNN's reporting as "fake news" and "absolutely trash."[180][a] Current and former FEMA officials and others criticized the need for executive approval, which, according to CNN, delayed the implementation of relief and rescue efforts.[183][184][185]

Weather seeding conspiracy theories

See also: List of cloud seeding projects during 2025

Unfounded conspiracy theories and misinformation across the political spectrum also spread on social media in its aftermath.[186] Influencers associated with QAnon spread conspiracies that the floods were a result of weather control and cloud seeding by the government.[187][188] Shortly after the flood, Georgia congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene introduced a bill to make weather alteration a felony.[189][187] Anti-government militia Veterans on Patrol called on its members to destroy NEXRAD weather radars.[190] On July 6, a man broke into a radar system operated by News 9 in Oklahoma City and damaged its power supply, briefly knocking it offline.[190][191] Republican candidate Kandiss Taylor called the events "Fake weather. Fake hurricanes. Fake flooding."[190][189] Cloud seeding company Rainmaker seeded clouds in prior days in other areas of Texas and reported receiving a number of death threats due to unfounded online accusations of complicity in the floods.[192][188]

See also

Notes

  1. ^ CNN's report on FEMA's delayed response to the flood is based on anonymous sources. Snopes declared, "It was not possible to independently verify CNN's reporting as of this writing; therefore, we cannot rate the accuracy of this report." Snopes points out that after a June 18 CNN article on the policy itself,[181] "Federal News Network, a publication for federal employees, published a report corroborating CNN's reporting." That story also quoted anonymous officials, but one of them confirmed in a post on LinkedIn that he had spoken to CNN. "In McLaughlin's email to Snopes, the DHS spokesperson did not deny CNN and Federal News Network's reporting, but she also did not directly confirm it."[182]

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